U.S. Launch Capacity Could Fall Short as Satellite Demand Surges, New Report Warns
Federal Support Seen as Key to Unlocking Non-Traditional Spaceports
A data-driven assessment of U.S. launch infrastructure released at the 2026 ASCEND Conference concludes that existing spaceports and regulatory frameworks are already strained — and face potentially severe bottlenecks as satellite constellation demand accelerates through the end of the decade.
“This report and its findings come at an important time as the Trump Administration is considering a refresh of the National Space Transportation Policy and a dramatic increase in investment in U.S. commercial launch infrastructure.”
Dave Cavossa, Commercial Space Federation.
The report, titled “SCRUBBED: America’s Launch Capacity Challenge,” was produced by Rational Futures in partnership with the Commercial Space Federation. Authored by a team that includes former NASA Chief Economist Dr. Akhil Rao and former NASA Senior Policy Advisor Dr. Tom Colvin, the assessment draws on Federal Communications Commission regulatory filings, government budget data, and orbital mechanics modeling to construct three demand scenarios and evaluate U.S. launch capacity for each.
“This report and its findings come at an important time as the Trump Administration is considering a refresh of the National Space Transportation Policy and a dramatic increase in investment in U.S. commercial launch infrastructure,” said Dave Cavossa, president of the Commercial Space Federation.
With more than 180 launches conducted from U.S. soil in 2025, the report finds that the strains already visible at major launch sites will intensify significantly depending on which satellite constellations advance to operation. Key findings include:
Up to 7,000 launches per year may ultimately be required, depending on constellation readiness and launch license and permit caps.
Annual satellite demand could range from 6,000 to as many as 230,000 spacecraft, driven by multiple scenario variables.
Vertically integrated, launcher-operated constellations could saturate ultra-heavy and heavy-lift vehicle capacity, forcing other customers to medium or smaller launch vehicles.
Licensed launch allocations for some vehicle classes are insufficient to meet satellite operator demand by 2030.
Current spaceports can accommodate a majority of increased launch activity, but process, procedural, scheduling, and security issues risk creating bottlenecks that could slow the industry’s ability to respond to demand.
New and non-traditional launch sites could add capacity and resilience, but infrastructure economics make federal support a practical necessity.
The report divides the path forward into two tracks. For traditional launch sites such as Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida and Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, the primary obstacle is coordination rather than physical space. The report outlines options including the creation of a central management authority to handle zoning decisions, infrastructure investment, scheduling of shared resources, and a reduction of evacuation zones through improved methane explosive yield analysis.
For non-traditional and inland spaceports, the economics present a steeper challenge. Infrastructure costs of roughly $200 million per site — required to support 10 to 20 annual orbital launches — are unlikely to be recovered through market activity alone. The report identifies potential federal tools including improved flight safety systems, dynamic airspace management, updated overflight regulations, and anchor tenancy arrangements or direct capital funding.
The report explicitly rejects a passive approach to both categories of launch infrastructure, identifying two action-oriented tracks for policymakers while noting that neither relies on waiting for market forces to resolve the problem independently.
The release coincides with an active policy moment for U.S. launch policy. The Trump Administration is currently evaluating a revised National Space Transportation Policy, and the report’s findings are intended to inform both that process and broader federal decisions about investment in commercial launch infrastructure.