The Impact of Starliner on Boeing's Future with NASA
NASA and Boeing Both Say the Spacecraft Will Fly Again
(Analysis and Commentary by the Ex Terra Media Staff)
When Boeing's CST-100 Starliner launched to ISS on June 5th, probably no one thought that nearly three months later the spacecraft would remain docked to the orbiting outpost. But now, astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams may feel a little like Charlie on the MTA.
“Well did he ever return?
No, he never returned
And his fate is still unlearned (what a pity)
He may ride forever
'Neath the streets of Boston
He's the man, who never returned."- The Kingston Trio, “Charlie on the MTA”
Unlike the ill-fated Charlie in the 1959 hit by The Kingston Trio, Butch and Suni will return to Earth, but not on the same spacecraft on which they arrived at ISS. And their 8-day stay aboard the ISS will be extended to 8 months, with their return now expected at the end of Expedition 72 in February, 2025.
So, could the issues with Starliner lead to a change in the relationship between Boeing and NASA?
How We Got Here
Starliner, or CST-100 is part of the Commercial Crew Program. When NASA retired the space shuttle, the only option for transporting astronauts to and from the International Space Station was Russia's Soyuz. For a lot of reasons, including national pride, NASA needed a way to transport crews to ISS from American soil, and do it economically. Boeing was the first company to be selected for a CCDev1 contract in 2010 to begin to develop a commercial crew system, followed closely by SpaceX. Sierra Nevada Corporation was also awarded a contract to begin working on a solution based on its Dream Chaser spacecraft prior to the spinoff of Sierra Space.
SpaceX was the first to have a system certified for human spaceflight, and Dream Chaser will soon join the ranks of companies doing commercial resupply flights. Boeing, however, was frustrated by multiple issues in the development of Starliner.
In 2021, the company discovered problems with the wiring in the spacecraft. The soft links incorporated in the parachute system were determined to be inadequate for the loads they would experience during landing. At the same time, the tape used to wrap some of the wiring harnesses on the spacecraft was found to be flammable. There were also issues with the docking system. All of this pushed the crewed test flight of Starliner back by years. Perhaps the only saving grace for NASA was that the program was being conducted under a fixed-price contract, meaning Boeing was responsible for covering whatever cost overruns might be incurred during the development, currently estimated at some $1.5 billion (Wikipedia).
But even before the crewed flight test, software issues during the first uncrewed test flight (OFT-1) of Starliner caused the spacecraft to miss its intended orbit, and therefore it was unable to dock with the station. Orbital Test Flight 2 (OFT-2) was more successful, with Starliner docking to the station and returning safely to Earth.
The crewed test flight lifted off on June 5, 2024 to great fanfare ... but issues with helium leaks for the thrusters quickly became evident, and that's where we are today.
A Bit of Boeing History
Boeing as a company has its fingers in a lot of pots. It is maybe the largest aerospace and defense contractor in the nation. And it has had a lot of successes. The Boeing B-52 Stratofortress first flew in 1952, making it a 72-year-old airframe.
And the company, through upgrades and improvements, expects the BUFF (nickname of the B-52 for polite company) to fly for 100 years. Boeing has been instrumental in much of the space program as well. It is NASA's largest contractor, with contracts ranging from the millions to billions of dollars. Those include the Mars Ascent Vehicle and the Cygnus cargo module that regularly resupplies the ISS and maybe most importantly the International Space Station (ISS). They “provide key engineering support services and continual capability enhancements, as well as processing for laboratory experiment racks” (Boeing).
However, that relationship has not always been sunshine and roses. Most recently, the NASA Office of Inspector General (OIG) released a report expressing concerns about Boeing's quality control management during work on the Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) for Artemis IV. Boeing’s EUS contract has grown from $962 million to over $2 billion through 2025, contributing to the overall SLS Block 1B cost increase. Delays in the program have pushed the projected launch of Artemis IV to no earlier than September, 2028, and that date could also slip, according to the OIG. The principal problem, according to the report, has been a lack of sufficient number of trained and experienced Boeing aerospace workers at the Marshall Space Flight Center, Michoud Assembly Facility (Michoud). And while Boeing does provide training and work orders to its employees, the OIG found those efforts to be inadequate.
The aerospace giant has had issues in its other verticals as well among them:
The problems with the 737-MAX MCAS system are well documented,
as were some of the development issues with the 787 Dreamliner, where battery problems led to a lengthy grounding of the airplanes.
The company also faced ethics scandals in the early 2000s, resulting in the resignation of CEO Philip Condit in 2003.
His successor, Harry Stonecipher, also resigned just two years after being appointed to the position due to violations of the company's code of conduct (Harvard).
Quality control at Boeing subcontractors has recently been called into question following the loss of a door plug from an Alaska Airlines 737 mid-flight.
What does all of that have to do with starliner? The issues with the thrusters and helium leaks were actually known before the first manned test flight launched to the station. Boeing determined that the issues did not present enough of a risk to the crew to delay the launch again. Apparently, NASA agreed with that assessment, until the flight actually took place. Now, NASA's risk-averse culture has led to a shift in that thinking, and while Boeing says Starliner is safe to return to Earth with Butch and Suni on board "in an emergency", NASA is not willing to risk the astronauts, or the PR nightmare that would follow an accident.
Will Starliner Fly Again?
According to NASA, the short answer to that question is "Yes". During the media briefing held by the agency to announce the decision to bring Starliner back to Earth uncrewed, everyone at the table expressed confidence that the spacecraft would provide crew rotation services for the agency in the future. The Commercial Crew Program was always intended to have multiple spacecraft available to provide those services, and there is currently only one ... SpaceX's Dragon ... certified for human spaceflight. Responding to a question from a reporter, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said that he is "100 percent" confident that Starliner would be a part of the Commercial Crew Program in the future. "The extensive cooperative working relationship between NASA and Boeing of finding the problem but knowing that the uncertainties are what held up the crew getting on Starliner to go home, and a certainty on my part that we will find out the uncertainty, and Boeing's unwillingness to carry through on this program."
Now, that could be considered a political answer. As has been noted, Boeing has a long history with NASA, and is an integral part of many of its programs. If NASA's administrator suddenly expressed a vote of no confidence in Boeing, it is not clear what kind of repercussions that might have when it comes to Congressional funding for the agency or programs with which Boeing is involved.
It should also be noted that CFT-1 is by definition a test flight, and Williams and Wilmore are by definition test pilots. Test pilots are a different breed than most, and are well aware of the risks that can come with flying an untested aircraft, or in this case spacecraft. Would they have been willing to get back on board Starliner and attempt the return to Earth? We won't know until their books are published, if ever.
As it stands now, the Crew-9 Dragon is being reconfigured to accommodate a crew of two with two different seats so that it is ready to bring Butch and Suni back home next February. "There'll be ballast on board on the uphill," said NASA Commercial Crew Program Manager Steve Stich. "We also have to work to reconfigure the Crew-8 vehicle. Once Starliner undocks it will undock first, and then the Crew-8 vehicle will serve as the lifeboat for Butch and Suni. We have a configuration on the cargo pod that will go in place."
NASA, of course, has a history of solving problems on the fly. Perhaps the best example of that was the agency's ability to bring the Apollo 13 crew home safely after the famous "Houston, we've had a problem" incident. So Starliner may in fact fly back to ISS. What is certain is that both the company and the agency have a lot of work yet to do before that second human-rated crew vehicle makes regular visits to the ISS ... or what ever private space station(s) may replace it. As to the relationship between the agency and Boeing? It's difficult to envision a U.S. space program that does not include Boeing. Along with their work on NASA's manned and unmanned programs, the company has a robust satellite manufacturing business, and NASA is deeply involved in the development of electric aircraft and low-boom supersonic airplanes. Boeing has a lot of expertise in that arena. That said, it seems that NASA is likely to expect more stringent quality control from its contractor, based on multiple OIG reports. So while the relationship may change incrementally, the probability that NASA will throw Boeing overboard is pretty low. It's also unlikely that Boeing will throw in the towel on its manned space efforts, though some would say continuing with the effort is throwing good money after bad.
Of course, when it comes to major companies and lucrative government contracts that never happens.
Right?
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