Space Weather Forecasting using Artificial Intelligence
A Northumbria University physicist has been awarded more than half a million pounds (≈ $620,000) to develop a system for space weather forecasting using Artificial Intelligence and protecting the Earth from devastating space storms.
“One of the primary ways in which space weather can impact society is through an unexpected surge of energy in power networks and pipelines on the ground."
Dr. Andy Smith
Activity from the Sun such as solar eruptions, known as Coronal Mass Ejections, results in plasma being fired towards Earth at supersonic speeds, which can result in serious disruption to power and communication systems. With our increasing reliance on technology, solar storms pose a serious threat to our everyday lives, leading to severe space weather being added to the UK National Risk Assessment for the first time in 2011.
Northumbria’s Dr. Andy Smith has recently been awarded a Research Fellowship from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) to explore how physics-inspired machine learning could be used to make space weather forecasting more accurate and predict serious space storms.
During the Next Generation, Physics-Inspired AI forSpace Weather Forecasting project, Dr. Smith and his team will analyze huge amounts of data from satellites and space missions over the last 20 years to gain a better understanding of the conditions under which storms are likely to occur.
They will then develop cutting-edge computer models which will use the data gathered to predict when such storms could occur in future, forecasting phenomena such as the northern lights, or aurora.
“One of the primary ways in which space weather can impact society is through an unexpected surge of energy in power networks and pipelines on the ground," Dr. Smith said. "These surges can accelerate the aging of power systems, or even lead to the immediate failure of components such as power transformers, leading to a complete loss of power.
“This research will take a leap forward in understanding and predicting when we are at risk of suffering from these surges, caused by rapid changes in the Earth's magnetic field.”
History shows the Need for Accurate Space Weather Forecasting
Throughout history there have been several examples of serious geomagnetic space storms. In March 1989 the Canadian city of Quebec lost power for over nine hours following a huge solar storm which resulted in auroras or ‘polar lights’ being visible as far south as Texas and Florida.
And in 2003 the Halloween solar storms, named because they occurred at the end of October, affected satellite-based systems and communications, with aircraft being advised to avoid high altitudes near the polar regions, and an hour-long power outage in Sweden.
But the most intense geomagnetic storm ever recorded was the 1859 Carrington Event, which resulted in strong auroral displays visible around the world, as well as fires in multiple telegraph stations. The solar flare connected with the event was observed and recorded independently by British astronomers Richard Christopher Carrington and Richard Hodgson. “Our reliance on electrical power networks means that a storm on the same scale as the Carrington Event would have devastating consequences today, making an accurate forecasting system even more essential," Dr. Smith said.
“The technology we are developing through this project could protect the Earth from the impact of geomagnetic storms as we could predict when such events would occur, allowing us to prepare."
Dr. Smith is a member of Northumbria University’s Solar and Space Physics research group, and this is the latest in a series of high-profile grants awarded to academics at the University studying the impact of space weather on the Earth.
(Source: Northumbria University news release. Images provided and from file)